Thursday, April 21, 2016

Way Too Early Blue Jays Observations

It's been 16 games so let's have some fun overreacting to small sample sizes!

1. Marcus Stroman is not an ace

I've felt this way since he came back last season and just wasn't really striking guys out the way he used to despite pitching pretty effectively. His ground ball % remains elite, north of 60%, which is certainly impressive, but ultimately the bar to qualify as a true ace is set awfully high (which is a problem in particular for Mr. HDMH). It's very hard to be a truly dominant pitcher without a healthy dose of Ks, and Marcus currently sits at a paltry 4.76K/9IP on the season. He wasn't much better between the end of last season and the playoffs, where he still averaged fewer than 6K/9IP. He's a really good pitcher, and I certainly expect his numbers to improve as the season goes on. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all currently above 4.00, which is not indicative of his true ability. But he's not an ace, and it's becoming harder to imagine him ever truly being one. And that is totally fine because...

2. The Jays rotation is still a lot better than you thought it was

Admittedly the small sample size caveats apply a lot more here than to my analysis of Stroman, but the starting pitching has really carried this team while the offence has struggled to score the way they did last season. Much maligned for not being named David Price when they were signed in the offseason, Marco Estrada and JA Happ continue to offer more than merely serviceable production. It's still much too early to assume this will continue all season long, but at the very least it seems like they will be able to give this offence a chance to win most nights they take the mound, which is all the team should really need. RA Dickey has been shaky to start the season but his peripherals suggest that should improve, as does his history of pitching 200 pretty good innings every season. He's actually striking out almost a batter per inning so far this season, which is a stat worth keeping an eye on.

Finally, Aaron Sanchez has been amazing. It's incredibly unlikely he can keep this up all season, but on the other hand: he was even more dominant as a reliever, he has elite stuff that has always given him a truly high ceiling, and he trained with Stroman and put on 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason, which he claims is helping him repeat his delivery more easily and pitch deeper into games. It sure is the kind of narrative that you feel you can buy into, isn't it? It's exciting to realize there are legitimately good reasons to think the rotation can keep this up, and even if they regress they should still be more than good enough for this team to win a lot of games. In addition, both Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez have pitched well out of the pen, poorly-timed grand slam aside, so the team should be able to overcome an injury in the rotation, possibly even two.

3. I'm legitimately worried about Tulo's offence

Not just because he has been bad for 15 games, that would be highly irrational. Tulo had a down season last year at the plate and each game he struggles to start the season makes it a bit more likely that was not an aberration he will bounce back from, but legitimate decline due to age and all the injuries he has suffered over his career. He won't be as bad as he has been so far, and he continues to be excellent in the field, but it's time to be at least a little concerned that he might not even match the league average production he put up last season. It'd be nice if Russell Martin started hitting again soon too.

4. Gregg Zaun knows which relief pitchers are feeling good enough to pitch on a given night better than the coaching staff

Just fuck off with this bit, seriously. The coaches talk to these guys every day. They know how their arms are feeling better than anyone besides the pitchers themselves. It's their job. You simply have to give Gibby and the pitchers the benefit of the doubt here.  Am I supposed to believe Drew Storen comes to Zaun before the game and says "man, I feel great but Gibby isn't gonna let me pitch in a close game tonight! It's like he doesn't even want to win!"? Or is it that Drew Storen shows up to the park and decides he doesn't feel like pitching that night even though he's perfectly healthy and tells the coaches he feels sore? But Zaun somehow knows the truth!

If the coaches say a guy can't go a given night then he can't go. Even if they do coddle some of these guys a little early in the season who is Gregg Zaun to decide that's not in the pitcher's best interest long term? It's complete nonsense and it needs to stop. Sometimes your baseball team loses a close game in the late innings. It's painful enough without having to listen to this horseshit.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Raptors 2015-16 Trade Deadline

I've spent entirely too much time thinking about this subject so I'm going to go ahead and actually write something about it! If the Raptors think they have a chance to beat the Cavs in the Eastern Conference finals they probably will need an upgrade at the 3/4 to do so. This trade would also help them avoid yet another embarrassing first round playoff loss at the very least. With Kyrie seemingly playing better heading into the All-Star break perhaps our chances in an eventual series against the Cavs would not be as good as they appeared when he was really struggling in his return from his knee injury, but a healthy Demarre Carroll could really take this team to another level, and another similar player to help him guard the Lebron/Love pick and roll could perhaps be enough to make it a fair fight. I think that's the player the Raps want, so I will be focusing more on 3-and-D forwards who can guard both the 3 and 4. A true PF with less versatility defensively is still possible, as are certain offense-first wing players, and I'll try to consider all the potential options.

Ideal World But (Probably) Not Gonna Happen:

Al Horford (Hawks): Horford is a stud on both ends of the floor and would give the Raps everything they desire in a power forward, aside from elite 3-point shooting. I don't really think the Hawks are as eager to move him as the rumour mill wants you to believe though. His contract is expiring sure, but Atlanta will likely want to keep him and hold the trump card in resigning him unless a team is willing to drastically overpay, which Masai is too smart to do.

Danilo Gallinari (Nuggets): Perhaps not quite the defensive stopper they desire but the substantial upgrade on offense and having him for at least one extra year would be fantastic. This is also why he's going to cost too much since teams still overpay for offense, and I don't think Denver especially wants to move him. The player option in his contract for a 3rd year could really hurt if he gets injured again.

You Could Get Him, But Do You Really Want Him?:

Thaddeus Young (Nets): Thad is a pretty good basketball player but I don't see him as the fit the Raps want. He's not good enough defensively and while he'd be a nice boost to the offense his mediocre 3-point shooting doesn't really fit what the Raps seem to prefer doing on offense. Maybe if the price gets low enough.

Ryan Anderson (Pelicans): An elite offensive option but liability on defense, and on an expiring contract. I don't think the price is going to be right here, and I'm not sure he's as big an upgrade as people want to believe. If the price came down I'd take him over Thad.

Probably Not Available:

Jared Dudley (Wizards): It seems that Washington are set on trying to make a run at the playoffs to help their case in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. If they are willing to move Dudley and his expiring deal he is exactly the type of under appreciated player the Raps might be able to get on the cheap to provide decent defense and elite 3 point shooting. He has already spent much of the season playing the stretch 4 for the injury plagued Wiz.

Omri Casspi (Kings): Who knows what the Kings are liable to do, his 3 point shooting could help and while the Kings are a train wreck on D it doesn't seem to be his fault. Could be a solid cheap addition.

Interesting But They Don't Help Right Now:

Terrence Jones (Rockets)/Markieff Morris (Suns): Both young PFs who show potential and are interesting buy low candidates. Neither is ready to step in and help a serious playoff team right now though and both have the issue of being inconsistent at best defensively. I'd probably rather gamble on Pat Pat going forward and he's the better fit right now too.

The Obvious Fit:

PJ Tucker (Suns): There have been plenty of rumours about the Raps being interested in Tucker and for good reason; he ticks a lot of boxes. A plus defender who could switch onto stretch 4s, he and Demarre Carroll would be an ideal combination to defend Lebron and Love. He's on a cheap contract that appears to have a team option for one more year, which would bring him back for the final year of Lowry's current contract next year as well. Compared to the current option for that role in James Johnson, Tucker gives you serviceable 3-point shooting: good enough that he must be guarded on the perimeter, which prevents him from being a negative on offense. As a defense first type we can perhaps be more optimistic that the price for Tucker would be right, but one wonders if the Suns would insist on moving Markieff Morris in a trade with Tucker, which could make things more difficult. Ultimately, I still think Tucker is the most likely of these players to be a Raptor by tomorrow evening.

The Raptors have the assets to land any of these players. However, in a year where even if you happen to sneak past the Cavs you will have to face an all-time great team in the finals, it doesn't make sense to pay too high a price. Here's hoping Masai finds the right move for now, while keeping the future bright.

Mike

Thursday, January 03, 2013

On to 2013!

First of all, happy new year to all my loyal readers! 2012 was a great year for me, and it's going to be hard to top, at least in terms of poker results, in 2013. But I'll for damn sure be trying my hardest anyways! The year ended more quietly for me results-wise, as trips to Macau, Montreal, and Prague resulted in some big stacks and deep runs but no final tables. Two 12th place finishes and a 14th make me feel good that I was giving myself chances, and if I hadn't run into aces so much deep in these events I may well have added another nice score or two to cap the year. I was lucky to have some swaps come through so I probably still made some money overall, and of course those three cities are an awful lot of fun.

After so much travel for live events in the latter part of 2012 I was planning to cut back a little in 2013, but the schedule is just too good and winter in Toronto so bad that I just feel compelled to play everything for the next month. I'll be flying to Bahamas for the PCA on Friday for the $100k super high-roller event and the rest of the schedule there that follows. I've never been a huge fan of PCA, but I can't find an excuse to skip it this year as Fallsview has finally done the obvious thing and moved their series back a week so as not to compete. After PCA it's back to Canada for Fallsview and then I make my annual trek to Melbourne, Australia for Aussie Millions. It's going to be a crazy month whatever happens, and hopefully lucrative as well!

Mike

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

€50K Specialist

The WSOP happened again this summer, and while my HendonMob page wouldn't indicate I was there I can assure you I was. My plan to play less events didn't really happen either. What that means in real words is that I played a whole lot of poker tournaments in Las Vegas this summer and lost 100% of the money I invested into them. I took a month off before heading to Barcelona for the first event of this year's EPT schedule. Barcelona is an amazing city but this trip was mostly business. The one amazing thing I got to experience was watching the first leg of El Clasico, the huge soccer match between Barca and Real Madrid. The first event I played was the €50k high roller, and as the title would indicate, it went well.

After building a big stack on Day 1 I fought my way to the final table on the 2nd day as one of the short stacks. It was all I could do to sit back and watch my roommate Dan Smith decimate player after player. Coming into the final table, three of my friends had the vast majority of the chips: Dan, timex, and JC Alvarado. The other five players including myself were relatively close in chip count, but all the money was in the top three places so it didn't make much sense to just sit around and try to wait people out. Unfortunately, my cards dictated that was my only choice for the first few hours of play, and no one was busting. As I was so short nothing interesting happened at the final table, I just managed to win a few preflop all-ins in a row. I was briefly in contention to make a run at the title but I lost my next all-in and was eliminated by JC in 3rd place for €400k. Dan went on to win again (obviously)! I also ended up finishing 10th in the 2k side event, which didn't pay much but at least broke my streak of three consecutive live cashes where Dan had finished higher than me.

I went home after Barca and grinded WCOOP online, and while I managed to win a 2nd chance event for around $35k it was still easily a net-negative series for me. It was immediately back on the road after WCOOP as I took my talents to the southern beach town of Cannes, France for WSOP Europe. My more loyal fans (hi mom and dad) would recall that I very nearly won a bracelet there last year, and then followed that up with a win in the turbo side event, cashing around a quarter million euros combined. It was the beginning of the great run I've been on in European tournaments, so I was feeling confident. This confidence showed as I screwed up my French less often in my brief interactions with taxi drivers and at restaurants.

I also played fine on the felt and I min-cashed the €10k mix-max event, but had no luck in any of the other bracelet events. I was planning to leave early and go to Sanremo for the €5k IPT high-roller event, but then I heard that the €50k side event in Cannes was actually going to attract a lot of more casual players than I would have expected. I was able to get the money together to play, and you should have a pretty good idea how this turns out. I doubled up with aces the first hand I played and it was smooth sailing from there. Actually the first half of that sentence is true but the rest is anything but. I struggled to get anything going again on day 2, and by the time we reached the final table of 9 players with 8 spots paying I was the short stack. Much to my dismay we ended play for the night still on the bubble and I got to stew all night on the fact that I was probably going to be the bubble boy.

Obviously, that didn't happen. Once again I went on an incredible heater after folding all the way down to starting stack for the tournament! I won a series of coin flips, doubled when I flopped top pair with a weak hand out of the big blind, and then decided coin flips were too easy and won AJ vs AK all-in preflop twice in a row to take the majority of Richard Yong and John Juanda's chips 3-handed. The win was good for €1 million, my second ever 7-figure score and first in over four years!

After Cannes was Sanremo where I tried to go back-to-back with a deepish run in the main event but ended up 59th. I also cashed another €5k turbo event, just to make sure people know those are still my domain too. Next up is ACOP Macau, followed by WPT Montreal and EPT Prague most likely. I'm really enjoying traveling and playing live right now so for the time being I'm going to keep playing the rush!

Mike

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Europe, SCOOP, meh WSOP

Poker has continued to go well lately. My most recent trip began in Dublin where I min-cashed the Irish Open. I also went to the Guinness brewery and maybe a pub or two. Next up was Vienna. Vienna is a really nice city, but after Dublin the night life mostly disappointed. I had no luck in the tournaments there, but my boy Scott Seiver won the premiere league for half a million so we made some party after that. My last night there I had a great night out with my Aussie mates at an Australian backpacker type of pub that had a great laid back vibe and was a ton of fun. Next up was Berlin. Berlin seemed awesome and while I again didn't do as much of the touristy stuff as I probably should have I did go to two excellent restaurants, a steakhouse I forget the name of and Hartmann's, which was more of the typical Michelin star French fare. My biggest complaint about Berlin was that there was none of the great German beer I'm used to drinking! Everywhere they drank Pilsner Urquell and Radeberger - Czech pilsners, and not much in the way of the amazing Oktoberfest style lagers and Weissbier German beer is typically more famous for. I guess that's more Munich style but I found it strange. I won the 5k turbo, my last event there, for 70k euro, which covered most of the buyins for the trip!

 The final leg was Monte Carlo. I've been there several times before for the grand final and it has to be one of the most overrated destinations on the poker circuit. Don't get me wrong, it's unbelievably beautiful there and definitely worth seeing. But don't spend any time there. Everything is way too expensive, and while the food is of course excellent there's nothing great in terms of night life. Fortunately, I was pretty much just there to play poker so that wasn't of great concern. The problem was that so too was my roommate "Truck" Dan Smith. I finished 11th and 8th or something in the 5k full ring and 6-max side events respectively after having a lot of chips deep in both. Dan just decided to win both of them as well as the 5k turbo though, so I never really had a chance. Easily one of the most insane weeks ever. I cashed for enough that I booked a decent win on my own play, and while I didn't swap with Dan in any of his wins I did have another swap come through to make it a very profitable trip. The trip ended with the Pokerstars party and me making some quality 4am decisions and not getting home til 8am. Believe me, I wish that was actually what it sounds like.

Upon returning to Toronto SCOOP started almost immediately and I decided to go get that internet money. In the first week I ended up finishing second in the 1k +1k bounty event for $81k plus a handful of bounties. Once again I wasn't satisfied just to cover my buy-ins, and I final tabled the 1k triple draw for $8k and finally I had my first truly huge Sunday score! Technically it was a Monday score I guess since it was a 2-day event, but regardless, finishing 2nd in the $2k 6-max SCOOP for $221k was a great feeling!

 So now I'm rich again and I'm off to Vegas to dump it all back at the World Series. If I can have a winning SCOOP though anything seems possible. Maybe even a winning World Series! If only Tony wasn't still drawing stone dead. I'm planning to play a lot less events this summer for several reasons and hopefully a little more cash, a lot more golf and basketball, and maybe a little more party. Also, more 51s games to watch the Jays top prospects hit moonshots in the desert air while pounding dollar beers. Alright that should get you about caught up. As always, updates on @SirWatts, and drunken profanity-laced rants and witty/brilliant observations on my other secret Twitter account so I can keep my respectable nice guy public image because I want my mom to keep loving me.

 Mike

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Oops

Alright I'll skip the apologies and get to writing there's obviously a lot to catch up on. Prague went pretty well except for the part where I was grinding everyday and didn't see any of the city. I played a lot of poker to end up 9th in the WPT, so close to that big score I haven't had in so long! In the EPT I made it into the money and lost a decent sized pot with the best hand for a min-cash. Prague seemed like an amazing city, hopefully the next time I'm there I'll bust everything on day 1.

My string of winning poker trips continued at Epic as I shipped the $2k turbo side event for $40k. I also got 2nd in the charity event. Good thing I played that one so I could keep my card for the second season which is totally going to happen. I said it'd be 50/50 before Epic started that there was ever a second season but I figured they probably at least have the funding in place for the entire first season. Oh well.

After the holidays I took off to Australia for a week of golfing and Portsea pubbing before Aussie Millions. I had no luck down under this year but as always I very much enjoyed myself. I played the $100k event for the first time and lost a lot of my and my friends money. Honestly I could have won but I just decided to let Dan have one.



I skipped LAPC this year and went back to Fallsview to defend my 2nd place from last year. I failed, and then have mostly been in Toronto since then. Online has not been going terribly well this year either when I've played. My PLO results have been mediocre and tournaments have been going very poorly as of late. I had my first chance of the year for a big score three days ago in the Ongame Grand Slam $5k event however. Unfortunately I could only manage another 9th as luck again was not on my side at the final table. I'm very happy with the amount of chances I've been giving myself lately though and eventually I'll convert a big one. I definitely think I'm playing better than ever, even if the learning curve has resulted in me making some big mistakes I would never have made before.

Next up is another big Europe trip! I will be touring around the continent again in April to play the Irish Open in Dublin, WPT Vienna, EPT Berlin, and finally the EPT Grand Final which has returned to Monte Carlo. There are almost no breaks in the schedule so I will be grinding like crazy again. Honestly, I'm a shitty tourist anyways so it's probably for the best.

Mike

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Vancouver and Onwards: Prague, Epic #3, etc

Two blogs in a week?! Crazy, I know. Really it's just because I was tired and got carried away making fun of my friends and forgot to write about some stuff, but I'm going to say it counts. Between rolling around in my purple euros and grinding online I also went to Vancouver for a week after my Eurotrip to visit friends and play the BC Poker Classic. I busted the main very quickly but final tabled the $5k high roller event. I ended up placing 7th when I got AQ in vs KK, but given I won 99 vs KK all-in on the exact bubble I can't complain.

Tonight I leave for Prague where I'll be playing the WPT as well as the EPT and side events. Unfortunately I connect in Heathrow tomorrow morning where apparently there is a 24 hour border control strike. Heathrow is brutal at the best of times and with amateurs working the passport control it's likely to be a shit show. I only have an hour-forty to make my connection to Prague and I'm pretty concerned this going to turn into one of those travel horror stories. If you awake to find a ranting series of rage tweets from me you'll know why. I'm very excited for the trip though as I've heard so many amazing things about Prague and of course the tournaments should be great value.

After Prague I fly straight to Vegas for the 3rd Epic main event as well as the charity event. Not a lot to say here other than if timex can win one I like my chances. After that I'm home to Newfoundland for Xmas, and while I haven't quite finalized my plans for the new year yet I'm probably going to go straight to Australia for a month skipping PCA then come back for the events at Fallsview which are now in February. This is subject to change if I do well in Epic and qualify for the freeroll which is at the same time. The first 10 days or so in Australia a bunch of us are renting a house down the Mornington Peninsula and spending our days golfing the various courses in the area and then hitting the Portsea pub for a couple jugs of beer and some fresh seafood. It is unlikely to suck.

Mike

Monday, November 28, 2011

An Upswing!

I've been even lazier than usual about blogging lately despite the fact that there's actually been quite a bit to write about. It seems my attention span has continued to shrink to the point I have a hard time explaining what's on my mind using more than 140 characters at a time. Nonetheless I shall do my best to crank out a blog entry that isn't entirely the regurgitation of my last 100 tweets and actually goes into some small amount of meaningful detail on at least two occasions or something. I'm losing focus already so let's get onto it.

Last time I left you just as I was heading to Vegas for the 2nd Epic event. Things were going well for me and with three tables left I won AA vs KK all-in preflop for 10 times starting stack and I must have been top 3 in chips. Unfortunately, after that things stopped going so smoothly and then timex got moved to my left and I punted him a bunch of chips with top pair against an overpair when I played it kinda bad. He subsequently busted me in a standard spot. Here is a picture of me all-in with my 96s against his AK after I wished him terrible luck in the hand. Hopefully that made the TV broadcast.

Don't you still just hate him?

Anyways we'd swapped 10% and he ended up winning so I still got pretty paid and crashed his party and drank all his kegs and told all his friends how awful a human being he is, so I'd say I got the last laugh.

[Ed Note: a certain 4-letter noun has been removed from the last two paragraphs in 4 different locations and the adjective formed with the suffix "y" an additional six. I'm told I'm too vulgar]

Next up was a super awesome Eurotrip that began in Munich for Oktoberfest. Yes, it was incredibly amazing, and yes I am a better person than you because I was there and you weren't. The four us surprisingly survived the three days with merely minor battle scars. No one fell off a table and broke their head or anything. Outside of winning stuffed animals at the carnival games and bringing them to the beer hall with us where we force fed them alcohol no crimes were committed. Our stuffed turtle developed a serious drinking problem he may never recover from. Some drunk bitch grabbed our stuffed tiger and tossed him across the hall. I have never seen Scott angrier I thought he might pimp slap a ho. An extensive search was eventually called off. It is presumed he was trampled to death. We poured one out for our dead homie and soldiered on.

After that we flew to London for the EPT there. I did not sleep well and played kinda bad in the main event. I did however cash the 2k side event for my first live cash in 9 months or so! Then I played a hand even worse. The short version is after a series of comical mistakes I arrived at the river holding T7o in the small blind on a board of 97675. I checked the BB bet 17k, button called and with the game theory optimal hand to bluff with in this situation I went all-in for 50k total. This would be kinda cool if I had like 100k but obviously it did not work here.

Then I went to France and won all the money in Cannes. The final table of the 3200 shoot-out was incredibly tough but I made it heads-up with the chip lead after getting really lucky against Elky a couple times. Not a lot went right in the heads-up though and I bubbled my first ever bracelet at my first WSOP final table. Still I won like 112k euros for 2nd place. I had a decent run in the main event but lost my first all-in despite having the best hand. This worked out ok though, as the next day I beat 58 people to take down the 5k Euro turbo side event for another 105k. I was told at the bar later that I was allowed to be happy I won a tournament! I, however, stake Tony Dunst in poker tournaments so I knew the winnings would be short-lived.

Next up was EPT San Remo and I fought my way into the top 128 players who made the money yet again! I then busted the next hand to finish exactly 128th. I had a lot of chips in the 2k side event at one point but I kinda got velocitized and spewed them off. Velocitized is some term Driver's Ed people made up for the feeling of when you get off the highway where you were driving real fast onto city streets where the speed limit is lower but you still want to drive fast because you're now accustomed to it and it doesn't feel fast.

I am now coining the term in poker to mean when you've just played a bunch of hands against some euro tards and gotten the money in semi-light and been right a few times in a row because they're idiots and never have anything but still try to win every pot, but then you get in a pot against a solid player and you forget that you can't just 3b/call it off against his early position raise with TT for 40bb. So that happened and I lost a flip and I bubbled. Then I left and went back to Canada because San Remo sucks, especially when you've already been eating pasta and/or pizza for half your meals for the previous two weeks.

Since then I've spent most of my time rolling around in purple euros and playing online a bit. PLO cash has still been going really well overall though I haven't played as many hands as I should have, and I even had a decent Sunday score one week. Tony has a lot more work to do if he's still going to try to bankrupt me.

Mike

Monday, September 05, 2011

PLO, WCOOP, Epic

It's been a really crazy summer since I got back to Toronto. In the recent weeks a lot of my friends from Vegas have moved here to keep playing online poker which has made the city even more fun. While my bankroll may have taken a hit from Black Friday my social life at least has improved.

I've gotten back to grinding a good amount of PLO cash, by my standards anyways, and have run really hot. Unfortunately this has all been at 5/10 and not 25/50+, but nonetheless it's been a good run. I've never been good at grinding a huge amount of cash hands as my game tends to slip after a couple hours and I need to take a break, but my success has definitely made me want to play more. I'm pretty good at 6-tabling and I'm trying to work up to 8-tabling more when I feel relatively focused. This is all 6-handed games.



WCOOP started yesterday and I'm definitely planning to grind as much as possible. I'm going to miss a lot of days for things like Epic (which starts tomorrow), family visiting, etc... but that's really not a big deal. My plan will likely be just to play WCOOP and maybe a couple other bigger tournaments while continuing to grind PLO cash on the side since it's a lot more profitable. Between the waking early(ish) to play some of the events on the new schedule and long days it will be good to have days off anyways to avoid getting burnt out. WCOOP tends to be very frustrating in that the events have really long structures but huge fields. Often you end up playing for a very long time just to bubble an event or get 12th or something that is kinda close but doesn't actually pay much.

Epic Poker League main event #2 begins tomorrow as I mentioned earlier so I'm flying to Vegas tonight. Hopefully I'll still be there on Friday. Other than Sundays I basically haven't been playing any online tournaments. I won an EPT London package which was nice, but other than that just have a 10th and 12th in medium-sized events to show for myself. I've run really hot at building stacks and in the money percentage, but very poorly deep. Oh well, hopefully just saving my luck for all the huge live events in the coming months!

Mike

Monday, August 08, 2011

Epic Trips

Hey guys it's been a while since I wrote! There hasn't been a whole lot positive to write about with regards to poker lately and my tweets seemed to be getting negative enough. I didn't feel any desire to write what surely would have degenerated into some negative rambling piece of prose, or maybe one of those annoying entries where I write all kinds of positive stuff I obviously don't actually feel to try prove to everyone/myself I'm so above the variance and I'm going to keep fighting my best every day. I was pretty frustrated, I'm not proud of it I'm supposed to be better at dealing with it. It turns out after all these years grinding I'm still a real person who can't completely control his emotions 100% of the time. Maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Anyways, final numbers: I went 0-for-29 and Tony went 0-for-26. Bricking 55 events is pretty remarkable even for fish like the two us. You don't need to know the $$ figure but it wasn't small! Between that and me being dumb and not moving all my money off FTP when I had the chance it has been a pretty awful stretch financially (I'm still somewhat optimistic FTP will come back however). That's in the past now though and it's time to look forward. Tonight I'm flying back to Vegas for the inaugural Epic Poker League main event. $20k buy-in, invitation only event with no rake and $400k added to the prize pool. For more details check out their really cool website that is now full live: Epic Poker League.

It will be really interesting to see how things go with this new league! The idea of invitation-only tournaments is slightly against the spirit of the game but the idea of treating the players well and putting sponsorship/TV money back into the prize pool is definitely the right way to go about things. They seem to be doing everything right so far (except the name) but they have obviously put a lot of money into this and successfully selling poker television these days isn't easy. Regardless, I'm excited to be involved and it'd be a great tournament to go deep in.

After that I'm just back in Toronto for a while before doing Oktoberfest--->EPT London----> WSOPE Cannes ----> EPT San Remo for a month at the end of September. That's a pretty incredible stretch of tournaments (and drinking)! I haven't been able to schedule a Eurotrip in a few years now and I'm excited to get back over there. For now though, win my last tourney of the summer one more time?

Mike

Thursday, June 09, 2011

I lied, WSOP is clearly worse

I'm off to my usual 0-for-whatever start at the WSOP again this year. According to this pile of receipts it's eight events which isn't really anything but since 2007 I've cashed only two events a year and the earliest event I cashed was #20. I don't have the actual number but I should be over 100 WSOP events now without a final table. Basically, spending those 6 weeks golfing and doing lines of coke off strippers every day would be a better investment of my money, and probably slightly more enjoyable.

I haven't really had any time to do much other than grind so far. I got one round of golf in and had one night out but other than that it's just been poker poker poker and then lazing around recovering. Today is the $10k 2-7 NL event which is probably the smallest field I'll play so my best chance at a final table. Despite being a relatively simple game a lot of people just don't play it well. Hopefully I make a run it'd be a fun one to go deep in. I guess that's about it for now, hopefully more stories about winning all the money and partying my face off next time.

Mike

Monday, May 23, 2011

SCOOP is the worst

I'm really not sure why I get so excited about this every year, I mean I'm basically guaranteed a mid 5-figure score at some point but it's only going to be enough to get me even. I did have some close calls this year including 4 exact bubbles, and an 8th, 9th, and 2nd in H events. In the end that wasn't enough to get me anywhere close to even given the volume of big buy-ins I played. The 2nd was for $38k in the $3k 8-game and got me basically even as of the last Thursday of the series. Then I proceeded to brick the hell out of the final weekend and lose a nice chunk. Sunday was looking very promising as I ran hot the first few hours of the day including an early 2.5x up in the $10k. Then I lost AA vs Duhamel's KK to get back to starting stack and went on a stretch where I lost basically every major pot for two hours in every tournament and got massacred.

Anyways, I leave for Vegas Saturday night and according to my favourite fallacy I am due to absolutely crush the WSOP this year. Possibly even more due than when I binked my WPT. The good news is I do feel I played well the last week or so of SCOOP for the most part and I feel good about my game. I can only hope I get off to a hot start for once and ride it from there.

Mike

Friday, May 13, 2011

Early SCOOP and such

Yo, so SCOOP has started and I am getting crushed so far. I think I have one cash in an M event, 2 exact bubbles in M events, and no cashes in H events (or the few L events I've played) which hurts. Luckily I binked a 5th in the Party million for $46k before I went to Florida so still doing fine on the month overall. I'm pretty jealous of all my friends partying and hitting big scores in Europe though. Not that spending a week in Florida golfing was so bad!

This Black Friday thing has gotten a little annoying. I was counting on being able to withdraw online funds to wire to the Rio, but most of my online roll is on FTP and they don't seem to be processing withdrawals for the moment. I'm still not worried about FTP being unable to pay out but I'm not sure what the timeline will look like. As I understand it the account they would use to pay out is frozen because of this whole situation, and while they are still printing like a bazillion dollars a week it's going to take a while to build up enough to cover the demand. On the plus side I can apparently withdraw $500 a week now from AP! I can do like 4 of those pre-WSOP and then I guess I just pray that the company is still in business when I get back. Not thrilled. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that Tony had a lot of his liquidity frozen as well and needs a lot more money for the summer. I'm planning to just win a SCOOP or two and take care of it, but as I said in my opening rant that is proving difficult.

In other Black Friday fallout it appears our attempts at getting a reality TV show about our summer in Vegas are dead. I'm not sure if that was really the main factor or what but we were supposed to have meetings with some other networks around the time all that was happening and then they went away. It might be for the best anyways (my parents are relieved) as I'm generally a more private person when it comes to my personal life, but it sounded like such a ridiculous fun opportunity I was willing to go for it. Too bad, as everything seemed to be going really well for a while there and it really seemed like it was going to happen. It would have been awesome TV and a lot of fun for us.

In other recent news I have apparently been granted a 3 year pass to the Federated Poker League, a new pros only league being planned where a lot of the advertising and sponsorship money would be added to the prize pool in some way instead of just put into the pockets of the casino. I'm not terribly optimistic the league will do well/be viable but I guess it's a cool accomplishment and would be great for me obviously to play tournaments with a bunch of free overlay even if the fields are super tough. I guess only time will tell but I'll likely be making an effort to play these events if they end up being as advertised.

Anyways, ten more days of SCOOP and then a week off before WSOP. I really want a big score or two to get out of this run of mediocrity I've been on lately, but I've got to stay patient and keep my head together. Already I can tell the long hours of SCOOP every day are tough on me. Gotta find and keep my head in that tough grinder mentality.

Mike

Monday, April 18, 2011

The Best Laid Plans....

So as most of whatever readers I still have likely know by now, the FBI effectively put an end to online poker in the US for the time being this Friday. Obviously this is really bad for everyone, not just American players, but admittedly being Canadian is even awesomer than usual right now. I don't want to downplay the significance of this event or ignore the potential long term negative effects it could have on the poker industry as a whole, but I am an optimistic albeit realistic person so that's probably the angle I'll take in most of whatever I end up writing here. At least after I vent some frustrations about deciding to grind FTOPS and SCOOP instead of going to play awesome tourneys in Europe. Oops.

I am not going to speculate about US finally regulating online gaming because I have no special knowledge about that. What I do know is that Stars and Full Tilt are still the two biggest online poker sites in the world (though the Party/Bwin merger may push them into 2nd whenever that is finalized). They are going to continue on strong and find new ways to grow in the market that is still available to them. We should be especially thankful for all the work the online sites, but especially PokerStars, have done promoting the game around the world. If not for that this situation would be an awful lot worse for everyone, not just people like me who still have good games to grind online. Poker has gotten big enough that this hit should merely slow it down a little, and not be anything close to a crushing blow to the industry as a whole. Even my American friends who want to continue playing for a living have some options.

In the short term I'll have a better idea of how this effects me in a few weeks, but I don't expect it to be too drastic. I can still make a good amount of money playing online tournaments. The huge prize pools are gone, but some tournaments may actually get softer without all the American pros. FTOPS and SCOOP are a lot less exciting and I'll probably be skipping a lot more days than I was planning to, but they should still be quality series. I don't know what this really does to the high buy-in SCOOP events, especially in the less popular games, but the M-level buy-in events should all still have good enough fields and be a lot of fun. The less popular game events in FTOPS may be a bit of a joke unfortunately but the NL events will be solid enough.

The other potential benefit of this is it will force me to grind a lot more. There won't even be big mixed games for me to lose money at, or many big buy-in tournaments where my edge is questionable. If I want to play a weekday I'll have to grind in the afternoon and play a lot of smaller field events where my variance is reduced but I should still have a decent ROI. Sundays appear to still be really strong in the afternoon, though later events did not draw much of a field today. Anyways the point I was trying to make is this may actually force my game selection to be better by default.

Overall, I still really like my situation playing poker for a living. The net effect of this week's events is of course very negative, but I'm lucky not to have been hit as hard as many. Even for my friends south of the border there are reasons to be optimistic. It's going to be a rough ride, but in the end I'm hopeful everyone will come out OK.

Mike

PS. Oops forgot to include rant about UB/AP. I had a decent amount of money on there as it's the only place I win, and I am not at all confident I'll get it off. I can't really see how the Cereus Network survives without the American market. They are crippled at best and they must know this. I do not trust them to not just run off with my money given that we already know they are run by crooks. I snap cashed out Friday afternoon, will post in the comments here if/when the transaction goes through. I am concerned.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

MDMDHAMD

Yo, so not much to update poker-wise. I've been putting in a lot of mixed game hands and that's been going alright. I still seem to kinda blow at a bunch of the games but I'm learning and my results have been fine. I went on a quick $150k heater than lost most of it back, but I had a good session the other night to get a bit of that back. Hopefully if I get in enough hands I can eventually have some semi-meaningful information about my play in all the different games and use that to try to plug leaks. I've played a few small tourney sessions as well but those are stupid so I usually lose.

So SCOOP isn't until May 7th for some reason which overlaps nicely with the EPT Grand Final. Good work PokerStars. I heard some other bad stuff about the venue so whatever, Eurotrip is off the schedule yet again. I'm planning to grind SCOOP like crazy though. In the mean time there's not a lot in the way of super legit tourneys. Some GSOP and miniFTOPS stuff this weekend is pretty cool so I'll likely play Sunday in front of the TV while grinding March Madness obviously. Other than that I guess I'll try not to go broke grinding mixed games. Just kidding, backing Tony will be what breaks me.

Mike

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Online Grind

After LA we headed back to Vegas to grind FTOPS and such at Casa de Chewy. With one exception it's been all work here as the team has been putting in some serious hours on the tournament and cash grind. I hit a couple good scores in FTOPS, winning the $200 Stud Hi/Lo event for $27k and getting 5th in the 9-game multi-entry for $24.5k. Cash has gone up and down with some pretty big swings but overall it's been a successful couple weeks. I feel like my game has improved a lot in both tournament NL Holdem and mixed games over the last year despite not having a whole lot in the way of results to show for it. It definitely helps the learning process when your roommates are the best Rush player in the world (Dan likes to claim he's top 5 in the world at almost everything but in this case he's not exaggerating), and a couple guys who battle almost anyone at high stakes heads-up NL. Even Tony doesn't bring the team down that much.

Tomorrow is Dan's birthday so we're going to celebrate in Vegas before heading to LA on Thursday for the LAPC WPT event. After that I'm finally heading home! Between March Madness and SCOOP coming up I should be able to keep myself busy (depending if sitting on a couch watching basketball for 12 hours counts as a legitimate activity to you). Then I'm likely going to do the Irish Open, San Remo, Madrid tour of Euro-tourneys at the end of April.

Still no update on the results of our meetings in LA for those I've talked to about that, but we remain cautiously optimistic.

Mike

Friday, February 04, 2011

Australia 2011!

Another Aussie Millions has come and gone. As always I've had a great time in Melbourne, though poker was significantly less successful than last year. I did cash 4 of the 11 events I played, but they were all min cashes. The only biggish one was 5th in the $10k 8-game for $20k. I also lost a bunch online playing cash, so good times on the poker front.

Outside of that I had a lot of fun here catching up with friends, meeting new people, partying, golfing etc.... Unfortunately(?) plans have changed and I'm leaving Australia two weeks early and going to LA tomorrow with Tony and Dan. Not really sure what the plan is between that and the good events in LAPC, but these things have a way of working themselves out somehow. Hopefully missing out on two weeks in Australia ends up being worth it! I'll update further details when I have a better idea what's going on.

Mike

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Fallsview Recap

I played the $2.5k and $5k events at Fallsview this weekend and it proved to be a wise decision not to go to PCA. Both events were as soft as I expected, but the $2500 being scheduled for a Saturday and Sunday really drew a huge field and was even juicier than I could have guessed. 444 players showed up and the prize pool exceeded wan mirrion dorrars.

I got off to a good start flush over flushing a guy to double early but then hung around 25k for quite a while before reversing back to the 10k starting stack. Things were looking grim as the blinds were big and my first shove with Q6s was snapped of by 77. I flopped 2 pair though and then I won JJ>AQ vs the same guy a few hands later. Shortly after that I busted another guy somehow, I think another flip, and I had chipped up to 80k before I knew it. The rest of the day didn't go as well and I had to rebound at the end to finish with 56k. there were around 68 left with 40 getting paid.

On day 2 I just crushed from the very beginning. First I busted a short stack calling his shove with ATo and holding vs 76s. I then raised over an UTG limp with 88 and the guy next to me, who had just taken like 3 minutes to call a 20bb reshove with AK, moved in for an amount that gave me almost 2:1 on a call. I sighed and threw in the chips hoping to see AK, but instead he had 55(!). Then I stole some blinds on the bubble to have 210k when we reached the money.

They did a redraw for seats at 40 and Timex got moved to my table with 280k. Now guaranteed money people were willing to gamble again, so it was a rather opportune time for me to pick up QQ, AA, and AA within the first couple orbits. I busted a player each time, the last being timex himself when he jammed pocket 2s over my pocket 1s (he had already lost some of his stack by then). Then I opened AQ UTG, got flatted by some guy who likes to call, and the BB shipped 15bb. I called and held vs the 93o. Actually. Then I won another big pot when I opened 66 UTG+1 to 23k and got repopped to 50k by a guy who had flat called me with AK in the same spot the orbit before. I was therefore very confident he had a big pair so I did some math and decided to call getting a bit over 9:1 implied odds, which is probably a small mistake. Even though I'm only 7.5:1 against flopping a set I don't automatically win when that happens, but fuck him for minraising me and maybe I score some image points as being the bully chipleader who doesn't fold to such nonsense. Obviously I flopped a set and held vs AA. After that I won another smaller pot and had over a million when 2nd place was barely 500k. I made the final table with just under a million and was still chip leader.

The first hand I played at the FT was huge. 2nd in chips who had almost caught up to me opened in EP to 41k at 6k/12k/1k and the guy on my right called. I called with 77 and the three of us saw a flop of T73 rainbow (easy game). They checked to me and I bet 72k. It seemed likely neither was very strong but I have to bet anyways and I was thrilled to see the original raiser bomb it to 246k! He had around 450-500k behind and from playing with him I knew he was capable of spewing, but I really doubted he would be bluffing in this situation. In the end I still decided to just call afraid he might somehow hero fold if I shove as it's live poker but he'd probably autoshove the turn with an overpair anyways. Plus if he does happen to have AK somehow he might accidentally make a pair. The turn was a king and he shoved as expected, I snapped and beat JJ. After this pot I had 1.85M of the 4.4M in play with 9 left. 2nd in chips would have had maybe 600k.

Unfortunately from there I did not run so hot. I lost two flips against short stacks and later AJ vs AK to drop below a million. Another player from Waterloo, David Quang, had stolen my God-mode and run up the big stack. We eventually ended up heads-up with me behind 3:1 in chips. The heads up was incredibly one-sided. He probably made the best hand at least 75% of the pots that saw a flop and there just wasn't anything I could do about it. I was down to 500k when I got all-in A6 vs A9, but flopped three sixes to get back where I'd started. I then coolered him AQ vs AJs in a pot that would have put me roughly even in chips, but he rivered a J-hi straight to take it down. Second paid $141k obviously a great score, but payouts were pretty top heavy and first was twice that. Nonetheless I was still thrilled to get the year started in such a positive way.

I played the $5k on Monday and was able to double my stack without playing any particularly interesting pots, but then I went card dead and eventually lost JJ vs AQ. I'm off to Australia tomorrow for Aussie Millions where I'm planning to play basically everything except the 100k. If I can be even half as successful as I was there last year 2011 will be off a to a great start indeed.

Mike

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

On to the Next

2010 was a good and bad year for me. The good was that I succeeded in having a lot fun and enjoying life, which was my main goal. The bad was that with respect to poker I was in the red on the year. This was mainly because I stopped running hot at nosebleed PLO and I didn't do anything spectacular live, despite starting off the year cashing the PCA and having a great run at Aussie Millions. My lack of success at poker isn't really surprising. When you play as little volume as I did in 2010 at the stakes I played your results are going to vary wildly. Focusing more on other things and less on poker is unlikely to help. That being said, poker was not my main goal, and losing never really affected my mood. I still had a great year overall.

Losing in 2010 didn't really change my situation financially, though you probably won't see me playing much nosebleed for a while. That being said it's not something I intend to repeat in 2011. Since I got back from Asia I've been rededicated to grinding somewhat. I've spent a lot of time playing 25/50 full stack PLO and mixed games in the 40/80-250/500 range. Some of my limit games still need some work but I'm really enjoying the new 10 game mix as Badugi and NL 2-7 SD are both fun games and games I feel I'm relatively strong at compared to the field at this point. I think if I keep putting in hands as much as possible while being smart about game selection I'll have success. Making some more steady income from cash is important as my tournament results are always going to be erratic, that's just the nature of it.

As for 2011 I am doing a lot of the same traveling I always seem to do with a few changes. First, I'm skipping PCA this year. Instead I will be playing the 2.5k and 5k
events at Fallsview. These events will have a lot of value and are much easier to travel to. PCA is overrated once you've done it a few times anyways, and while the main event is one of the best tourneys of the year most of the $2k+ buy-in side events are nothing special. Immediately after Fallsview I'm off to Australia again for Aussie Millions. The schedule looks great this year and Melbourne is infinitely better than Atlantis in terms of a vacation spot in January-February. After the tournaments are over I'll be kicking it with my mates down under for the first 3 weeks of February. Finally, I'm heading to LAPC again on Feb 20 for the final week of events there. That's as far as I've got things planned at this point, hopefully I get off to a great start to a great year on and off the felt! Happy New Year and best of luck to everyone in 2011.

Mike

Friday, December 24, 2010

Part 4: Seoul

We arrived on a Tuesday night Dan-less and then proceeded to immediately get hustled by a cab driver taking us to our hotel. Oh well. Tony and I checked in and then asked the concierge directions to a good Korean BBQ spot. For those who haven't met Tony he is obsessed with Korean BBQ. It would not be an exaggeration to say that is a big part of why he wanted to visit Seoul. Largely through his influence I've come to really enjoy it as well, and I must say the meal did not disappoint. The quality of the beef was fantastic. We passed out and were lucky to be well-rested for what became a very interesting Wednesday.

I woke up and ordered breakfast then did my normal routine of dicking around on the internet. To my surprise I saw several links on my friends' Facebook/Twitter about North Korea attacking South Korea and started reading all about that. Basically, just as we were arriving in Seoul the Koreas had the biggest military incident between the two countries since the end of the Korean War. While I could see the seriousness of the events I was also pretty confident nothing would actually escalate from it, but it still wasn't exactly great timing to be visiting Seoul. While Tony and I did receive several very concerned messages from friends it seems basically everyone in Seoul felt the same as I did and went about the lives normally. I couldn't sense anyone really worried about the situation and what I read said the same thing. It appears most Koreans were just like, "Yeah, those North Koreans be crazy, what else is new?".

So Tony and I went on about our business. We knew one person combined in Seoul upon arriving, but as always with Tony he knows so many people that he's always able to get put in touch with people in whatever city he ends up. That night we went for Korean fried chicken with a mutual friend's ex-girlfriend who was in the city and a group of her friends. We immediately hit it off with the group and several rounds of beers, a bottle of soju, and some other Korean alcohol we were well-initiated to the Korean custom of going for drinks with your friends/co-workers after work. The fried chicken was nothing special, but the food was the hardly the focus.

After dinner we met up with group #2 of people Tony had been put in touch with. This was a group North American guys who had moved to Korea mostly to try to play Starcraft professionally at some point and then gotten into poker because Koreans are way too good at Starcraft. I think they all had some general version of that story. They had all been in Seoul long enough that they spoke both English and Korean fluently, which was nice because not a lot of people in Seoul speak much English, though there seems to be more of the younger generation making an effort to learn it. These guys took us to a karaoke spot spot where we proceeded to party until 7 or 8 in the morning. At this place they bring in girls to hang out in your room and party with you. They are paid to be there and hangout with you but that's all. I think only one girl spoke English, but we had a fun time drinking and singing and getting to know all the guys.

I awoke around 4pm on Thursday and Tony and I went for some much-needed Korean BBQ to cure our hangovers. After that we walked down to COEX mall, the largest underground mall in Asia. It really is pretty huge and has a lot of the huge international chains you would expect. It seemed like most people working at the mall spoke enough english to get by as it's such a huge tourist attraction. All the signs were in both English and Korean which was different from most other places we visited. Then we wanted to go see the new Harry Potter movie but for some reason they didn't have it in Korea yet, so we saw Unstoppable instead which was actually pretty decent. When we got out of the movie a few people from the first group the previous night were keen for us to meet them at their friend's club in Itaewon. All the partying was starting to wear me down by this point, but we didn't come to Asia to not party, so off we went and had another great night.

Friday was our final night in Seoul and of the entire trip. It was all already planned to go out with a blast. First, I was meeting up with a friend from university now living in Seoul for dinner, and then we were meeting up with Starcraft boys and hitting a booking club. Over the course of the night talking with my friend and then experiencing a night at the booking club I learned that dating in Korea is just way different than in North America. My impression is that while many Koreans appear to be conservative and in some ways shy, they are also very social and open to giving a date a try with a lot of people they meet and seeing how it goes. I have yet to explain what a booking club is, but I should preface that explanation by saying it's not something most people do in Seoul. Yet, the very fact these places exist shows how different the culture is.

It's not unlike a high-end club in most places in the world in that the guys pay for a table with bottle service, beers, etc.... but you also have your own private room like at a karaoke place. They give you a nice spread of food as well. The girls get in for free. They are completely normal girls just looking to meet guys (this isn't Macau), the same as the guys are looking to meet girls. The difference is that there are waiters going around the dance floor and area outside the private rooms. They have a camera in every room so they can see when a guy doesn't have a girl sitting beside him and they immediately move to rectify this situation. Girls are pulled into your room, sometimes literally, and they have no choice but to go when the waiter grabs them. They can always leave when they get there or you can ask them to leave, but if you're a girl hanging around by yourself outside you have no control over when/where you end up next. Throughout the night you might easily talk to 10-15 girls. It really was something to see firsthand.

In the morning I awoke feeling like crap, Tony feeling worse not having slept, and we made our way to the airport for about half what we paid on the way in. The long flight home really sucked, though probably not as bad as I'm making it sound except for transferring at LAX. That was a disaster, thank god I left 4 hours between flights.

I spent the next 3 weeks in Toronto and currently I'm home in Newfoundland for the holidays. I'll write another post soon detailing my plans for the first quarter of 2011, and reviewing my 2010.

Mike